The Baby Name Wizard

For some families, the biggest gift of this holiday season will come wrapped in a receiving blanket.

Babies arrive 365 days a year. As you open presents or toast the new year, someone somewhere is laboring to deliver a child. The confluence of birthday and holiday can inspire parents to memorialize the occasion in a name.

In the United States, several familiar names have strong Christmas connotations. Common choices for yuletide babies:

Natalie/Natalia: from the Latin for birthday. (Think also of the words nativity, pre-natal, etc.) A natural choice to commemorate a birthdate shared with baby Jesus.

Noel/Noelle: The French name for Christmas, from the same root as Natalia.

Nicholas/Nick/Nicole/Nicola: In honor of St. Nick. (The name Santa Claus comes from the Dutch form of Nicholas.)

And some other possibilities:

Jasper/Casper/Gaspar: By tradition, one of the three Magi. (Adventurous parents could also consider Balthazar or Melchior.)

Kris: The Santa moniker Kris Kringle is believed to come from the German Christkindl, "Christ child"

Merry, Joy: From familiar Christmas salutations

Natasha: Russian pet form of Natalia

But Christmas isn't the only holiday that has inspired namesakes. In Jewish tradition, for instance, you can find names linked to days throughout the calendar. During Hanukah, popular contemporary choices include names meaning light such as Leora, Orly and Uri. Judah/Yehuda is also chosen in honor of Judah Maccabee.

Looking ahead to the Spring, a baby born during Passover might be named Eliahu for the prophet Elijah, or simply Pesach ("Passover"). Pesach is also the source of the word paschal ("pertaining to Passover or Easter"), which gave root to the popular Christian names Pascal/Pascual/Pasquale for babies born around Easter. And Easter itself used to be a modestly common English girl's name--during the heyday of Esther, a Purim name.

A New Year's celebration is an especially apt time to welcome a new life's beginning. The New Year starts on different dates in different cultures: Chinese, Christian, Hindu, Jewish and Muslim New Years are scattered across the calendar. But for all, some names suggesting fresh new beginnings:

Aurora (Roman goddess of dawn)
Genesis (from Greek for "origin")
Nova (from Latin for "new")
Newcombe/Newman (English surnames meaning new arrivals)
Renata/Renatus/Renee/Rene (from Latin for "reborn")
Sabah (from Arabic for "morning")
Usha (from Sanskrit for "dawn")
Walid (from Arabic for "newborn")

And finally, the date which looms largest on the naming calendar: February 1. The deadline for submitting your predictions to the Baby Name Pool. But no worries, you've already filled out your entry...right?

Thanks for reading, everyone! Wishing you all love, peace and joy.

Laura

I'm going to look deep into your eyes, dear reader, and tell your fortune:

Your name is going out of style.

Oooh, uncanny, isn't it? Ok, it's not really such a bold prediction. Chances are, if you're old enough to be interested in articles on baby name statistics you're old enough to have seen a few fashion waves come and go. Most of us grownups have tried out some different hairstyles along the way, and worn some clothes we'd rather forget. But long after the MC Hammer pants are forgotten, we still carry one frozen moment of style with us every day: our names.

This single most lasting fashion statement isn't even one we picked out ourselves. Your momma may not pick out your clothes any more, but she still lays claim to your name. As a momma myself now, I'm not about to call this a bad thing. It's good to have an anchor of continuity as we move through our changing lives. But it does have some disconcerting side effects. Most of us, day by day, are watching ourselves fall deeper and deeper out of style. (A select few, of course, are experiencing the opposite phenomenon. After a lifetime of having to spell "Aidan" for everyone you meet, suddenly you find your head whipping around every time a mom calls the name out in the grocery store. But that's a story for another day.)

Just how deep is the style trench? It depends on your sex. Let's take a look at the valedictorians of the name class of 1975. Here are the top 10 baby boys' names of that year:

It appears that a typical 30-year-old man's name has lost 2/3 of its popularity over his lifespan. But it's hardly a dire situation -- every one of those names still ranks among the top 60 boys' names today, and four of them remain in the top 10. As a group, they were classics long before 1975 and remain so to a lesser extent today.

Now, the top 10 girls of 1975:

Gulp. The current highest-ranking name of the group is Jennifer at #38, the lowest Lisa at #431. Freefall. The reason, presumably, is found in the the sharp up-slope on the graph 50 years ago. While parents' conservatism in boys' names has given those names a gentle landing, their fashionable creativity with girls' names has left the trendiest choices zooming back to earth.

In a previous post, I discussed how parents of boys are starting to abandon their conservatism and follow fashion more with their name choices. That's creating a much more diverse name pool for the class of 2005. But 30 years from now, we may see more men spiralling out of style the same way that women do today.

You've read the blog, you've pored over the book, you have your finger on the pulse of baby name style -- and you could teach me a thing or two. Now's the time. Pick the names you think rose the fastest or fell the hardest this year, and submit them to the inaugural 2005 Baby Name Pool.

First, the ground rules. You choose six names: three you think have risen sharply in in popularity in the USA over the past year, three you think have fallen sharply . You submit your entry by February 1 2006, and await the results after the Social Security Administration releases the official figures on the top 1000 names for boys and girls. Now you're a winner, and receive a fawning tribute to your baby naming acumen in this very space. Huzzah!

If you're ready, head on over to fill out your ballot at babynamepool.com. Or, if you need a few more weeks to obsess over your selections, here's the background and details.

Why a pool? Baby names rise and fall in popularity, and it's possible to make educated guesses about where they're headed. This scenario, and the graphs I use to illustrate name trends, have reminded a number of readers of the stock market. Why not set up a pseudo-market in names? Values would rise and fall with popularity; canny investors would try to predict fashion trends or ride a celebrity's rising visibility. In fact, similar markets have been set up based on sports stars' stats, movie stars' box office clout, etc. With baby names, though, the problem is liquidity. Results (popularity stats) are reported only once a year. And of the thousands and thousands of potential investments (names), only a handful experience dramatic change during the year. Hot, nonstop action this ain't.

The more natural format for predicting a once-a-year event is the classic office pool. As it happens, though, I'm a bit short on office. (You'll find me and my laptop at a corner table in your local cafe. Feel free to buy us a scone.) So I'm turning to you all as my virtual officemates to pick the baby name champions of the year. No entry fee is required, though recommending my book to pregnant strangers is always a lovely gesture.

I'm honing my selections. What exactly do you mean by rose "sharply"? Identifying the hottest names of the year can by surprisingly dicey. Last year, the number of Isabellas born in the U.S. rose by over 1000, for an 8% increase. The number of Sanaas rose by 89 for a 29% increase. So which is the hotter name? To even the playing field for popular and unpopular names, change will be calculated as a function of of both absolute and percentage change. Scores for all 6 names will be summed together for a final score.

What about names that don't show up in the top 1000 list? To reward bold, visionary guesswork, bonus points will be awarded to picks of hot names that didn't appear in the 2004 top 1000 lists at all (assuming they do show up in '05.) In general, for calculation purposes a name that's off the charts will be counted at a usage frequency of 2/3 the number 1000 name.

How many times can I enter? Once, please! Be kind to your host. But if you absolutely must change your mind and enter again, I'll just use the latest dated entry.

Can I go for broke and put the same name on every line? Nah. Gotta work for your glory, kids.

Now, to the pool!

Baby naming is the kind of business where you write your "year in review" articles in May. It takes a while for national statistics bureaus to receive the full year's birth records, tabulate name frequencies, and put it all together for public consumption. By the time we really learn about 2005's top names the year will be far behind us.

In fact, it was just six months ago that I looked at at the people and events that sparked 2004's fast-rising names. But this year I'm going out on a limb. I've scanned the media horizon for fresh names that hit the sweet spot of style and celebrity. Here, for the first time anywhere, are advance predictions of the brand-new hot American names of 2005. Hold onto your seats, it's baby naming without a net!

Top picks:

Ciara (Current popularity rank: #330 among U.S. girls' names) - This name has been modestly common for 20 years now, but a breakthrough year for the R&B star Ciara should push it higher.

Danica (Unranked) - IndyCar racing's rookie of the year was *gasp* a woman and *double gasp* good looking and *triple gasp* had a catchy, gently unusual name.

Close contenders:

Amerie (Unranked) - An upstart R&B name to give Ciara a run for its money.

Dane (#468) - This has been a big year for comedian Dane Cook, whose name currently trails Shane, Zane and Lane.

Evangeline (Unranked) - "Lost" tv star Evangeline Lilly makes this romantic leap beyond Madeline more accessible.

Lincoln (#549) - In my column on presidential names, I tapped Lincoln as my dark-horse candidate. A main character on tv's "Prison Break" could spark an overdue surge.

Meredith (#331) - Too familiar to be a hot naming sensation, but still fashionable...the high-profile Meredith on "Grey's Anatomy" should give it a boost.

Preston (#152) - Another Grey's Anatomist and the middle name of the most publicized baby of the year, Sean Preston Federline.

Rex (#947) - The "Desperate Housewives" husband Rex might not have been a great role model, and did meet an untimely end. But his demise has only made him a bigger topic of conversation.

Sania (Unranked) - Tennis player Sania Mirza is a hot topic in India, and Indian name fashions leap to the U.S. in a hurry.

Long shots--names that don't quite fit the style zeitgeist, but have cultural momentum:

Clive (Unranked) - Oscar-nominated actor Clive Owen

Carl (#369) - Back-flipping NASCAR driver Carl Edwards

Fantasia (Unranked) - American Idol singer Fantasia Barrino

Matilde (Unranked) - Heroine of the telenovela "Amor Real"

Obie (Unranked) - Crooner Obie Bermùdez (and rapper Obie Trice)

And, finally, the wild card:

Katrina (#281) - A month before that devastating storm hit, I wrote a piece on hurricanes' historical influence on baby names. Unlikely as it may seem, the name Katrina could very well rise in popularity in the wake of its namesake storm.

And come next May, you can call me on it.

Picture three American girls: Guadalupe, Imani and Bridget. The names are all quite close in popularity. But in your mind's eye, do the girls all look the same? Chances are not, because the popularity of those names depends hugely on race.

Just about every demographic slice--geographic, ethnic, religious--has its own naming patterns, and race is no exception. Researchers and baby name authors often try to track these differences, coming up with race-specific name lists. You'll even find tallies of the "whitest" and "blackest" names based on birth records. But what about the reverse? What names tell you the least about the person's race?

I started with data on baby name choices in two diverse U.S. metropolitan areas, sorted into racial groups. My targets were names parents of all colors agree on -- names used most evenly across races. As it turns out, the most popular names overall are not necessarily the most universal. Even the #1 baby name in America, Jacob, is favored primarily by one racial group (whites). Names with roughly equal appeal to White, Black, Latino and Asian families include:

BOYS
Adrian
Anthony
Edward
Ian
Jonathan
Julian
Mark
Richard

GIRLS
Alexis
Alyssa
Arianna
Elizabeth
Erica
Mia
Nadia
Victoria

These names could be attractive options for parents who are negotiating conflicting tastes in multicultural families. There's also an appeal to any name that can move smoothly through many different social settings...and one that is unlikely to trigger prejudices.

But there are other people besides expectant parents who have to choose names: business people. If your ad for birth announcements had room for just one example name, how would you choose? You could go with a timeless classic, a particularly eye-catching name, or to be current, the #1 most popular baby name. (Or perhaps the #2 -- Emma is the dominant choice in ads right now.) But you might also want to consider a name that everyone can relate to and nobody will feel put off by. For a name that's favored by all and favors none, try Jonathan and Victoria...or, for if you pay for ad space by the inch, Ian and Mia.

In her Oz adventures, Dorothy encountered cyclones and earthquakes, witches and wizards, and all manner of miraculous happenings. She accepted the incredible with great aplomb. But one odd occurrence she simply could not accept: a woman named Bill. Even if that "woman" happened to be a talking chicken.

"But it's all wrong, you know," declared Dorothy, earnestly; "and, if you don't mind, I shall call you 'Billina.' Putting the 'eena' on the end makes it a girl's name, you see."

Dorothy met Bill the yellow hen in the wonderful Ozma of Oz back in 1907. Today androgynous names are much more common, with more and more male names adopted for girls' use every year. Addison, Skyler and Bailey are just a few of the many names that sounded solidly masculine a generation ago, but now rank in the "who can tell?" category. Yet a girl named Bill sounds just as unlikely today as she did in 1907.

Parents are selective in their gender flipping. Androgynous names make up a distinctive style with key elements in common. I tallied up 33 names that were in use exclusively for boys 40-50 years ago, but now sound androgynous or feminine. 23 of the 33 turn out to have surname origins--Parker, Kelsey, Peyton. The others include: names with sounds and rhythms typical of female names (Avery, Aubrey); names that seemed new and unusual 50 years ago and emerged into popularity for boys and girls simultaneously (Devin, Darian); and nicknames, a group which has always been more fluid with gender assignments (Drew, Alex).

Meanwhile the traditional English boys' names remain steadfastly masculine. If you look at the most popular names of 100 years ago, from #1 John to #200 Roscoe, only two names--Lee and Marion--would give you a moment's gender confusion.

For a quick gauge of a name's modern androgyny potential, picture a boy in a rough-and-tumble playground a century ago. Give him the name in question. Then ask yourself: "what are the chance this name gets the kid beaten up?" Today's androgynous names are yesterday's "fancy" names, the too-precious monikers that stood out in a field of Tom, Dick and Harrys. Even names that have become masculine standards in the ensuing years, such as Cameron, retain an echo of fanciness that leaves them open to reassignment. And as for the classic fancy-lad names, girls named Chauncey and Chesley are doubtless right around the corner.

But the classic boys will still be boys. And Bills will still be roosters, not hens.

Two girls in my daughter's class share the same name, so the teachers use their last initials to distinguish them. That's hardly a news flash, I know. It's the same in classes across the country. But a bit ironic in this case because of the name: Elizabeth.

Once upon a time, England was so thick with Elizabeths that elaborate means were needed to tell them all apart. As a result, the name boasts an unparalleled collection of nicknames. Bess, Beth, Betsy, Betty, Eliza, Elsie, Libby, Lise, Liz, Lizbeth...there's an Elizabeth to fit any mood. Yet in this nickname-averse age, we stick with the full version and resort to last initials.

The traditional nicknames aren't all dying out, though. You'll still meet many a young Eliza or Lizbeth, but chances are it's her full given name. A Tessa, similarly, is unlikely to be Theresa nowadays, and a Jack is seldom John. In fact, we've gotten so comfortable with many nicknames that they've become untethered from their origins. It's been going on for generations--just look at the thousands of Minnies of the 1800s, worlds removed from staid Wilhelmina. (And Minnie's friend Mickey was probably never called Michael.) So a little quiz for you: what full name was the traditional source of...

Buffy
Colin
Dolly
Jenny
Maisie
Nancy
Nell
Polly
Sally

. . . . . . . . . . .. . . . .

Answers (you didn't peek ahead, did you?)

Buffy: Elizabeth, naturally
Colin: Nicholas (also adopted as a form of the Gaelic Cailean)
Dolly: Dorothy
Jenny: Jane or Jean (long before Jennifer)
Maisie: Margaret (via the Scottish Mairead)
Nancy: Anne (and earlier, Annis/Agnes)
Nell: Helen or Eleanor
Polly: Mary (via Molly)
Sally: Sarah

Last week, I talked about "date-stamped" names that rise and fall seemingly overnight. The opposites of these are the timeless classics, names that remain trend-proof across generations. Katherine and Joseph, for instance, have been steadily popular through most of American history. When you hear those names, you have no clue whether the person is aged 1 or 100.

What about names that are steady, but not popular? Can you achieve the same timelessness with a name that's uncommon, or even surprising?

In fact, some of the most trend-proof names have flown steadily under the radar. Looking at the past 125 years of American baby names, I identified 450 names which ranked among the top 1000 for boys or girls in every decade. (A steadily unheard-of name isn't really timeless, but simply rare.) Then I looked for the most trend-proof names, regardless of overall level of usage. (My criterion for trend resistance, in case you're interested, is range/mean.) As it turns out, the #1 most timeless name in America is not Katherine or Joseph, or Elizabeth or James. It's one you'd probably never think of:

Antonia.

With its current popularity rank of #771, Antonia is a regular on my lists of underused names. Its grace and dignity stand up well to current favorites like Caroline and Sophia. And it is absolutely rock-solid timeless.

Antonia is a bit of an exception, though. Girls' names have always been most subject to fashion swings, and the uncommon-but-timeless roster is dominated by boys. Some of the notables:

BOYS
Blaine
Byron
Clark
Clay
Duncan
Elliott
Felix
Jefferson
Lincoln
Lorenzo
Malcolm
Marshall
Noel
Ross
Sterling
Thaddeus
Vance

GIRLS
Cecilia
Claudia
Corinne
Johanna
Lea
Lucia

There's some pretty good variety in that list, but if a single theme emerges it's an air of formality. From the smoothly urbane (Noel) to the classical (Claudia) to the aggressively sophisticated (Sterling), this is by and large a group that takes itself seriously. Formal fashions are more resistant to change than casual styles. A tuxedo is still a tuxedo, actresses dressing for the Academy Awards still try to look like Grace Kelly. And Katherine is still elegant, reliable Katherine...even as Kathi disappears from view.

The 1982 movie Blade Runner featured a dark view of the future, with an urban landscape overwhelmed by advertising. The hallmark of the year 2019 was to be vast, omniprescent plugs for the likes of Pan Am airlines and the Bell telephone system. As it turned out, of course, neither company survived the 20th century.

Of all the cultural attitudes that define an era, one of the quickest to fall out of date is its vision of the future. Commonplace things we take for granted can disappear, while fantastical ideas become commonplace. (Right now I'm sitting in a cafe, typing on the powerful little computer I carry in my shoulder bag, beaming this message through the air so that it can be published instantly to the computers of people around the world as I sip my coffee. Not as cool as replicants, maybe, but pretty close.)

Selecting a new, contemporary-sounding name is stating your vision of the fashion future. It's a risky business, staying ahead of the curve. What sounds most new today can end up sounding most old in a few generations time. Take the young boys named Google and ESPN...will they sound like Pan Am a decade from now?

Rapid obsolesence most often hits names that pop up overnight in response to a cultural moment. Consider Farrah:

Farrah was a pure creation of the 1976-77 television season, when Farrah Fawcett made a splash on "Charlie's Angels." As soon as she left the show, the name plummeted. A modest rebound hit in the late '80s following Fawcett's comeback in more "serious" fare like Extremities...and the coming of age of all the young girls who idolized her a decade before. Yet overall, the impression this name gives is of a date stamp reading "Best if Born Before 1/1/78."

An example from another era, Hoover:

Hoover vacuum cleaners were already a household name when Herbert Hoover ran for president in 1928, but that didn't stop American parents from bestowing the name on their newborn sons. (Herbert had nothing to do with vacuums himself, that company was the work of one W.H. Hoover.)

The cultural associations of names like Hoover and Farrah help freeze them in time. While Farrah is a snapshot image of feathered hair and polyester, Hoover brings up a more poignant picture of the start of the Great Depression. That image is reiforced by another icon of the era, Herbert's namesake Hoover Dam on the Colorado River. The dam was built between 1931 and 1935. By 1933 Roosevelt was in office and tried to erase Hoover's name from the project, just as political change erased the name from America's nurseries.

There's something quite touching about these date-stamped names. They're living memorials to the time when a baby entered the world. In fact, many parents surely intend them as such -- the Neils born after Neil Armstrong's moon walk, the Dougs and McArthurs of the World War II years. So a date stamp isn't necessarily a cause for alarm...just don't expect to be able to lie about your age.

My four-year-old daughter has decided to dress as Dorothy for Halloween. Does that call a picture to your mind? Perhaps blue gingham, sparkling slippers, and a pup in a basket? Hold on...when she told a preschool classmate about her plan to be Dorothy he said, "Oh, Dorothy from Elmo!" Indeed, Dorothy is the name of Elmo's pet goldfish on "Sesame Street."

In fact, the Oz image happens to be the correct one for my daughter's costume. (The kid is ready to start the preschool chapter of the L. Frank Baum fan club.) But her friend's reaction was a good reminder: when it comes to names, we grownups don't always know as much as we think we do. We're busy avoiding names that remind us of Rocky or "The Flintstones," while our kids' peers are more likely to relate to the "Backyardigans."

For first-time parents especially, the world of kiddie entertainment tends to be the great unknown. Luckily, many of the names are carefully selected to be out of fashion, especially the boys' names--Elmo and Oswald are typical. But below is a starter set of fashionable names that carry strong associations for the 8-and-under crowd. They're not necessarily negative associations, but it never hurts to know what you're getting into.

Angelina: A ballet-dancing mouse in a popular series of books (and now videos).

Ash: Young, world-traveling Pokémon trainer. Along with Ashton Kutcher, he's made the world safe for boys name Ash again.

Aurora: Sleeping Beauty.

Cleo and Theo: The lion librarians who guide their cubs through a world of literature on "Between the Lions."

Dashiell and Violet: Two of the Incredibles kids, Violet being the shrinking type (invisible) and Dash the dash-ing type (fast).

Jasmine: The princess from Disney's Aladdin, enshrined as part of the Disney Princess pantheon.

Kiara: A little lion, daughter of Simba and star of the direct-to-video "Lion King II."

Maisy: A sweet mouse featured in books and a tv series for pre-schoolers. (Not Daisy-Head Mayzie, who scarcely makes a cultural dent.)

Olivia: Ian Falconer's books about a young pig who is creative and appealing, but "very good at wearing people out."

Zoe: A muppet who joined "Sesame Street" in 1993 to help balance out the sex ratio and build on the youth movement of kid-muppets like Elmo.

...and please feel free to add to this roster with comments.