The Baby Name Wizard

You've read the blog, you've pored over the book, you have your finger on the pulse of baby name style -- and you could teach me a thing or two. Now's the time. Pick the names you think rose the fastest or fell the hardest this year, and submit them to the inaugural 2005 Baby Name Pool.

First, the ground rules. You choose six names: three you think have risen sharply in in popularity in the USA over the past year, three you think have fallen sharply . You submit your entry by February 1 2006, and await the results after the Social Security Administration releases the official figures on the top 1000 names for boys and girls. Now you're a winner, and receive a fawning tribute to your baby naming acumen in this very space. Huzzah!

If you're ready, head on over to fill out your ballot at babynamepool.com. Or, if you need a few more weeks to obsess over your selections, here's the background and details.

Why a pool? Baby names rise and fall in popularity, and it's possible to make educated guesses about where they're headed. This scenario, and the graphs I use to illustrate name trends, have reminded a number of readers of the stock market. Why not set up a pseudo-market in names? Values would rise and fall with popularity; canny investors would try to predict fashion trends or ride a celebrity's rising visibility. In fact, similar markets have been set up based on sports stars' stats, movie stars' box office clout, etc. With baby names, though, the problem is liquidity. Results (popularity stats) are reported only once a year. And of the thousands and thousands of potential investments (names), only a handful experience dramatic change during the year. Hot, nonstop action this ain't.

The more natural format for predicting a once-a-year event is the classic office pool. As it happens, though, I'm a bit short on office. (You'll find me and my laptop at a corner table in your local cafe. Feel free to buy us a scone.) So I'm turning to you all as my virtual officemates to pick the baby name champions of the year. No entry fee is required, though recommending my book to pregnant strangers is always a lovely gesture.

I'm honing my selections. What exactly do you mean by rose "sharply"? Identifying the hottest names of the year can by surprisingly dicey. Last year, the number of Isabellas born in the U.S. rose by over 1000, for an 8% increase. The number of Sanaas rose by 89 for a 29% increase. So which is the hotter name? To even the playing field for popular and unpopular names, change will be calculated as a function of of both absolute and percentage change. Scores for all 6 names will be summed together for a final score.

What about names that don't show up in the top 1000 list? To reward bold, visionary guesswork, bonus points will be awarded to picks of hot names that didn't appear in the 2004 top 1000 lists at all (assuming they do show up in '05.) In general, for calculation purposes a name that's off the charts will be counted at a usage frequency of 2/3 the number 1000 name.

How many times can I enter? Once, please! Be kind to your host. But if you absolutely must change your mind and enter again, I'll just use the latest dated entry.

Can I go for broke and put the same name on every line? Nah. Gotta work for your glory, kids.

Now, to the pool!