And now for something completely different

Jun 24th 2009
By Laura Wattenberg

I know what you've been thinking: "This here baby name statistics blog is mighty good. But wouldn't it be even better animated?"

First reacquaint yourself with the posts on recession baby naming (part 1 and part 2) and the fastest rising names of 2008, then check out how the CBS News "Fast Draw" folks tackle the material:

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=5101202n

(Duck! Eraser!!)

 

Comments

201
June 28, 2009 9:10 PM
By Anne with an E

Anna, I am an A lover for girls names (Annemarie, Arianna, Amabel). But for overall names it's E and V for me. I had to keep doublechecking my girls list to make sure I didn't duplicate my boys list. (Eleanor and Edward, Verity and Vaughn, etc)

I feel that the 14 names with different initials is a serious exercise in restraint! Good thing I'm never going to have 14 children!

202
June 28, 2009 9:33 PM
By RobynT

PPP: Ichigo is Japanese for strawberry right? Where did that come from!?

203
June 28, 2009 9:41 PM
By zoerhenne

Qwen-Love Gienna Charlotte with your LN! It sounds exotic and sort of like Vienna Chocolate. Kind of a fun association too (LOL)! I say go with it!

204
June 28, 2009 11:13 PM
By the other Amber

PPP - Ichigo Pax, huh? He doesn't happen to be a Bleach fan, is he?

205
June 28, 2009 11:16 PM
By Amy3

I've been trying to assemble a list of 14 names for days now, and it's so hard (especially for the boy names).

While I love names, when it comes to actually choosing names for real (or imaginary) children, I become unbelievably picky (and I'm not even including my dh in the discussion, although I am considering ln). I can't even begin to address middles, which for us would have to be the real name of a deceased relative.

1. Astrid (daughter IRL)
2. Linnea
3. Marin
4. Beatrix
5. Penelope
6. Elsa
7. Sidony

8. Elliot
9. Laszlo
10. Paul
11. Anton
12. Walter
13. Abraham
14. Cosmo

206
June 29, 2009 1:01 AM
By Mirnada

Here's a thought...what about Nola? Or is Nola Fontenot no good? Too many noes?

207
June 29, 2009 1:27 AM
By Leafy

Qwen! I have found a name you may like! It would work perfectly with the nickname Gigi -

GIADA — An undiscovered Italian jewel (it translates as Jade) brought into the spotlight by celebrity chef Giada De Laurentiis.

It was even in the top 1000 names in the USA last year!

I also found these Italian names and their meanings:
Giacinta - Young and beautiful.
Gianina - God is gracious. .
Gianna - God is gracious. .
Ginevra - A woman of the people.

Also thought I'd suggest that you Google the name Gienna - it seems that there are already a few people out there in the real world that have this name! :)

Btw, I can understand what you mean about a name having personal meaning, rather than the literal historical meaning. Sometimes it is our personal associations for a name that gives us a stronger sense of whether we like that name or not. I myself am not that fussed about what a name means, as long as it's not something terrible!

Now, as for a G name with a literary reference, I too am struggling! All I can come up with are Gloria Steinem, Gertrude Steiner, and George Eliot, pseudonym of Mary Ann Evans. As far as characters go, there is Gertrude from Shakespeare's Hamlet, Gretchen from a DH Lawrence novel (I can't remember which one!) and... well, I'm stuck!!! I can understand why you abandoned the G-first name and G-middle name idea, LOL!!

208
June 29, 2009 1:34 AM
By Leafy

Mirnada, I think Nola Fontenot might be pushing it - you are right that it has a lot of n's and o's and similar "no" sounds, which do make it a bit of a mouth-filler. But it's not terrible. Do you and hubby both like the name Nola? And does this mean that he has not sucuumbed to the beauty of Sylvie, Ursula and Anya?

209
June 29, 2009 2:40 AM
By Mirnada

Leafy,
No, you're right. It's the same reason I can't use Noah. Nola just popped into my head today. DH did like it, but he never thinks about how the whole name sounds. He probably secretely liked that Nola is also a name for New Orleans. He doesn't love Sylvie for some reason, but seems to like Anya (phew). He dislikes Clara, too. We both like Ursula, but get a little nervous because so many people react negatively to it (damn Disney). Anya still seems most likely, but I guess we're in trouble if we end up with two girls!

210
June 29, 2009 2:42 AM
By Anna

Mirnada,

I like Nola Fontenot - a lot, actually. It's classy-cool. I think a subtle repetition of a sound/syllable improves the flow of a name-middle name. But, I've noticed that others often don't share my opinion on this, when I think something sounds great, everybody else seem to say it is too rhyme-y...

211
June 29, 2009 6:08 AM
By Leafy

Mirnada - I wasn't aware of the Disney link for the name Ursula. What a pity! I only think of the character from a DH Lawrence novel. (My sister-in-law loves the names Ursula and Gretchen because she fell in love with the names while reading DH Lawrence. Funny how books have that effect on so many of us!) At least you can both agree on Anya. And by the time you have a second daughter, you may have discovered another girl's name that you both like, or one of you may warm to a name previously vetoed. I warmed to Thea, and my husband warmed to Augustus. Now they are in our top 2 choices for a girl and boy respectively!

212
June 29, 2009 10:02 AM
By hyz

I'm loving reading everyone's lists! There are a lot of overlaps, but with 15 I think you do start to see more individualities come out, too. Fun. :)

Trying to catch up here:

knp -- you said Shepherd was a surprise. I couldn't sell DH on that one, but I love the pastoral/bucolic feel, the peacefulness of it, and even the religious undertones. Literally thinking of one who herds sheep--a flock guardian--it's a name that feels at once strong and protective, but also sweet and caring--all wonderful qualities in a person, I think. I'm not particularly religious, but I do have a soft spot for some of the biblical phrasing, ideas, and imagery--among other things, "Shepherd" immediately makes me think of this comforting psalm: "The Lord is my Shepherd; I shall not want. He maketh me to lie down in green pastures:He leadeth me beside the still waters. He restoreth my soul...." Lovely. I don't even mind the German Shepherd connection--it's not my immediate association, but I do love dogs, and (good)German Shepherds are amazing animals.

Tirzah -- Good memory! We were considering the spelling Minha, but that was actually to represent a different Korean name that we were considering--Min-ha instead of Min-ah. The difference is subtle when said fast, but enough to put me off of it in our case.

EVie -- interesting point. Regardless of the spelling (Minna, Min-ah, etc.), there should be no glottal stop--it just all runs together.

213
June 29, 2009 10:11 AM
By Bethany

Wow, 14 children is really hard... I still don't know if I'm satisfied with this list, but these are names that I would at least consider:

Eliana Sion (irl)
Ofelia Yasmin
Paloma Soledad
Lucero Sarai
Rosario Laurel
Noemi Isabel
Gisel Marilyn

Diego Jesus (irl)
Mateo Elias
Cruz Francisco
Efren Josue
Ruben Ariel
Lazaro Adan
Israel Andres

214
June 29, 2009 10:14 AM
By Elizabeth T.

My husband spent the weekend reading a book about probability. One of the problems really confused him. I'll see if I can represent it briefly (and correctly--ha!) so you can see where naming ties in:

Imagine a family has two children. You know one of the children is a girl. What is the probability that the other child is also a girl?

Now, imagine that the girl is named Florida (this was the example given in the book). According to the author, knowing the girl's name changes the probability that her sibling will also be a girl, since you can discount the option of two girls both being named Florida. Knowing her name changes the probability from 1/3 to 1/2.

My husband and I spent a long time trying to understand this problem. I said, "Well, I think it's a spurious argument, because if you know one sibling's name is Jennifer, then the likelihood of her having a sister named Florida is, for all intents and purposes, zero. If, on the other hand, the first sister's name is Dakota, then it's more likely that the second one would be named Florida." My husband got so frustrated with me that he changed the parameters of the problem from a girl named Florida to "a girl wearing a yellow shirt" (half the girls wear yellow and the other half wear red). This simplified things for us and we were eventually able to understand the problem!

Anyway, I'm stating the problem badly, but we both thought it was pretty funny--he read the problem to me in the first place because he thought I would find it interesting since it involved an unusual name, but that actually turned out to hinder my understanding!

215
June 29, 2009 10:33 AM
By Coll

Mirnada-- I like Nola best as a nickname for Magnolia, and I think Magnolia F0ntenot is ravishing, stunning, thrilling. Too flowery for you?

Qwen- Have you considered the fact that Gigi is a literary name on its own? As in Collette's novella Gigi (on which the film is based). Gigi's full name is Gilberte. Based on my rudimentary French, I'd guess that's pronounced Zhil-bairt. Kind of pretty, though certainly unorthodox.

Anyway, I think Gigi Cordelia is rather sweet, if you want to go for broke and just give her the nickname. Gienna is not my thing, but I can see the appeal.

Other literary G names: Galadriel (speaking of LOTR), Gudrun (speaking of DH Lawrence), Georgiana (Jane Austen and others), Gertrude (Stein), Gwendolyn (Brooks plus Oscar Wilde), Grace (Little House books).

Gigi can also be a nickname for Virginia-- linked to Woolf.

Will do my 14 names in a following post, for length.

216
June 29, 2009 10:41 AM
By emilyrae

elizabeth t.,
i'm not sure i understand; perhaps i've misread the point of the problem. i generally consider myself a relatively intelligent person, but this is going right over my head.
i can't see how the probability is anything other than 1/2, regardless of the name. if i know that a family has two children and i know one is a girl, isn't the probability that the second child is a girl 1/2? if i suddenly know the first girl's name, how would that change the probability? i must be missing a crucial fact somehow.

217
June 29, 2009 10:53 AM
By Coll

Okay, 14 kids, 7 boys, 7 girls, no repeated first name initials. Middles can repeat initials. First names in each list are our real first name choices for our potential future children. Did not consider husband's last name or preferences--this is my fantasy life, after all.

Girls
Josephine Rebecca
Margaret Clare (nn Maisy)
Cornelia Maude
Edith Catherine
Henrietta Faye
Louisa Maeve
Beatrix Cecilia

Boys
Simon Arthur
Kelly John
Alistair William
George Edward
Roland Isidore
Frederick Augustine
Walter Harrison

Many of these are family names, specifically: Edith, Henrietta, Simon, Arthur, Kelly, John, William, George Edward, Isidore, Harrison

218
June 29, 2009 11:56 AM
By Elizabeth T.

emilyrae, I've probably stated the problem incorrectly, as my understanding of probability is pathetic. But you have to articulate all the possibilities: gg (girl, girl), gb (girl, boy), bg, and bb. If one child is a girl, the only possibility you can eliminate is boy, boy, leaving three other permutations.

For some reason, and I just tried to write out all the permutations and failed miserably, knowing anything about the hypothetical child changes the frame of the problem, and therefore changes the probability of the other child also being a girl. I'll check this evening when I go home, assuming my husband doesn't drop it off at the library before then!

219
June 29, 2009 11:31 AM
By Jenny L3igh

Elizabeth T- I'm definitely still confused like emily rae, but I do find it very interesting!

I'm behind again so I don't remember all my reactions, but just on this page I'm liking many of Coll's suggestions for people: I love Magnolia F0ntenot, nn Nola!

Qwen- What about Gigi Collette? It would be a very close association to the story if people know about it, but I really like the sound, adorably french!

220
June 29, 2009 11:35 AM
By Guest

My 14 names.

Mattea
Bianca
Naomi
Lyvia
Elodie
Karis

Hudson
Sawyer
Dax
Dallon
Keaton
Drake
Grady
Ryker

221
June 29, 2009 11:39 AM
By emilyrae

elizabeth t,
actually, i was so curious, i googled the problem and found an explanation here:
http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/probability-quiz-results-and-winners-321/
(look at questions 2 and 3)

it wasn't your explanation at all--you did an excellent job! i am just not terribly familiar with probability. i am not afraid of math, but i didn't realize that you have to lay out every single permutation (most specifically including birth order), and to treat naming as completely random.

incredibly interesting though; i do understand it now. definitely not your explanation though; just my poor understanding of probability. and i agree with you, the name florida DEFinitely threw me off--i had the exact same thoughts as you regarding dakota, etc.

222
June 29, 2009 11:41 AM
By Jenny L3igh

And I'm so glad people are still posting their 14 hypothetical children so that I can play! Trying to stick to the different letters I ended up with:

Cecily Joyce
Erica Violet
Genevieve Alice
Juliet Sarah (I was trying to put Sarah first bc I like both Sally and Sadie as nn's but couldn't find a good mn)
Lydia May
Madeleine Audrey
Natalie Bridget

Kenneth Wheeler
Tristan Grant
Leander Rhys
Bradley Quinn
Caleb Whittaker
Henry Leopold
John Connor (Jack)

This has been so fascinating in looking at what I like. I seem to get into a certain rhythm with the sound of my girls' names. Also I love 'A' girls names and couldn't pick between all the ones I love which is how I didn't end up with any as first names! I also had trouble with boys names in that I like mostly certain letters apparently, L, T, C/K (same sound in the ones I like), G.

Family names are Aubrey (put Audrey above because it sounds better there I think), Kenneth, Wheeler, Julia (close to Juliet), Leopold, Bradley.

223
June 29, 2009 11:42 AM
By Jenny L3igh

Hmm and I should add I wasn't thinking and only did one letter per child per gender, not overall... oops:)

224
June 29, 2009 11:46 AM
By PunkPrincessPhd

@ the other Amber - 204:

OMG - you are totally on target with that one! Yes, it does mean strawberry - it started as a joke about Kurisaki's red hair...

Hence his repeated preference for Rukia as a girl's name (I'm trying to push for a middle spot on that one).

Does it suddenly make sense why we are at such a deadlock with DD's name? @ different naming universes...

225
June 29, 2009 12:10 PM
By Elizabeth T.

PPPhd, That is hilarious! I hope that your universes overlap at least a little (and it seemed like they do from your 14-names list).

Thanks for posting the explanation, emilyrae! That was perfect. It was going to drive me crazy that I couldn't articulate all the permutations of the Florida, non-Florida girls and boys properly. I also noted to my husband that we had to posit that girl/boy births were split 50%. At any rate, this all goes to show that names are brought into many a conversation in my household!

Names at a 7-year-old girl's birthday party:
Eliana
Anjana
Yumi
Ainsley
Sarah
Maya
Sydney (x2)
Ava
Alyssa
Sophia
Marisa

I was amazed by the repeated letters: A (4); E (only 1, the birthday girl); M (2); S (4, but two of them are from the repeated Sydney); Y (1, a Japanese girl, whose name doesn't fit American trends).

226
June 29, 2009 12:42 PM
By Moonie

I don't know why, but when I make hypothetical families I always want to use some sort of randomization just to throw different odds for children. It's part of the fun. But, because of the randomization factor I got a really distorted family because it rolled me 11 "girl numbers" out of 14.

Anyways.

F- Anja Cecilia (Ani)
F- Esmé Elisabeth (Maisie)
F- Freya Grace
F- Mattéa Evangeline (Téa)
F- Helena Juliet (Lane)
M- Noam Peregrine (Noe)
F- Isobel Anne
F- Lillian Claire (Lil)
F- Stella Arwen
F- Celeste Avery
M- Jack Laurent
F- Twyla Leone
F- Violet Serafine(Vi)
M- Leo Grey (Lee)

227
June 29, 2009 1:10 PM
By Circe

I've been pleased to see Mattea coming up on a few of these lists! I know a lovely Mathea who is probably 9 or so right now, and I've always found the name to be light and feminine and European while still being very palatable to Anglo ears. Plus it seems like a nice way to honor a Matthew in the family (and given how many Matthews are aging into fatherhood these days, it might be good to have some options for how to do that.)

228
June 29, 2009 2:22 PM
By Qwen

PPP - I had also wondered about whether there was a connection to Bleach or not. 'Different naming universes' indeed!

I think it's great though. You can go with Irish for a girl and Japanese for a boy. :). How would that be for confusing receptionists and the like?

229
June 29, 2009 2:25 PM
By Qwen

I also wanted to thank everyone for helping me come up with some literary reference names. There are some fun ones to choose from!

230
June 29, 2009 2:42 PM
By emilyrae

regarding gigi:

maybe joyce could be a literary middle name, while still counting as the second half of gigi? i know it doesn't start with a g, but it has the same sound you're looking for, and it is DEFinitely literary. so you could easily do gienna joyce or genevieve joyce or geraldine joyce (probably not your style...just popped into my mind due to it being my grandmother's name :] ) or any of the other fantastic g-names out there. unless you completely hate james joyce, in which case it probably isn't the most excellent idea. what do you think?

231
June 29, 2009 3:06 PM
By Anna

Boy/girl statistics,

There is a much simpler explanation (no offence to emilyrae's statistics guy):

Speaking in statistical terms, a birth is an event with two possible outcomes; boy and girl. The probability of each outcome is 50-50 (or technically 51% for boys, 49% for girls, but we'll keep it simple here). Births are *independent* events, meaning the outcome of one event does not influence the outcome of the next event.

So, on to the tricky question: A couple has two children. One is a girl (with a funny name). What gender is the other? The trick is to realise that child1 (event#1, outcome=girl) and child2 (event#2, outcome=unknown) are independent events, and that the question is only about event#2. The probability distribution of event#2 is 50-50 for boy-girl, and that is the same as the answer to the question.

Note that this is different from asking about the *combined* probability of specific outcomes (genders) for multiple events (births). So the girl-girl probability of 25% is the result of two independent events combined (50%*50% = 25%).

The statistics guy is deliberately making the problem more complicated (because otherwise it wouldn't be much fun). Instead of the 50-50 distribution for boy/girl he's taking the 50% for girls and splitting it into Florida-girls and other-girls. He's not using actual percentages, but let's say 1% F-girls and 49% O-girls. Now each event (birth) has three outcomes (boy, F-girl, O-girl) which of course leads to more possible combinations of the event happening twice (two children). He then calculates the probability for each combination, and it all looks mighty complicated. However, when he summarises in the end he's adding the 49% and 1% and... surprise... gets back to 50%.

232
June 29, 2009 3:43 PM
By zoerhenne

Qwen-I sencond the idea of Joyce from emilyrae unless its unusable for some reason. I like the sound of the repeated G in Gienna Joyce, Geneviere/Genevieve Joyce, Gennnifer Joyce. I guess its the "Gen" sound that I like but not the Gertrude or other sounds.

ElizabethT and others-Regarding the Florida boy/girl math problem. I've always seen this in puzzle books as a trick question involving money, or ages of children. Ex: if two coins adding up to 25cents are in a bag, and one of them is NOT a dime then what is the other one? Well-its a trick question because just because one is NOT a dime doesn't mean the other one ISN'T a dime! Or if 2 children's ages add up to 21 and one of them is half as old as the other...
So with the problem stated earlier, if there are 2 children and one is named Florida, what is the gender of other one? Like Anna said, it is irrelevant what the child's name is-its either a boy or a girl. It also doesn't give you enough information to rule out that the other child isn't also named Florida! LOL! (reference to George Foreman)

233
June 29, 2009 3:47 PM
By hyz

Ok, feeling a little slow here, but I still don't get this. In both questions, it looks like he's asking what the chance is of having two girls, when we know that there are two children and one is definitely a girl--why does it matter whether we know the girl's name or not?

I think the questions are poorly stated. From what I can tell reading the wsj comments, the first question is attempting to ask "what is the probability of a family having two girls, given that one is definitely a girl", while the second question is trying to ask "given that you have one girl, what is the probability that the next child will also be a girl?" The answer to the first question makes sense as 33%, because out of the 4 possible ways to have 2 children (gg, bg, gb, bb), you subtract one (bb). Then the answer to the second question also makes sense, because the birth of each child is an independent event, with the outcome not affected by the sex of the previous child--so the sex of the first child is extraneous information, and the chance is 50/50 (like zoerhenne said). I still don't know what Florida has to do with anything.

234
June 29, 2009 4:00 PM
By Amy3

Qwen, I love the sound of Gienna Joyce. As others have said, I'm warming up to Gienna. Given that it meets your criteria--and you and dh agree--it may be your winner.

235
June 29, 2009 4:10 PM
By emilyrae

i agree that the name is extraneous information; nevertheless, seeing the logic worked out was interesting.

zoerhenne, glad you liked the joyce suggestion! i wasn't sure, as it doesn't start actually start with a "g." however, i suppose it is qwen's opinion that matters the most. :]

236
June 29, 2009 4:30 PM
By Circe

I don't know if this has made the list yet of literary G-names (I've been skimming through the last posts), but Gloriana is Edmund Spenser's name for Queen Elizabeth in his epic The Faerie Queene. So that has a double-commendation: literary reference and historical heroine.

237
June 29, 2009 5:09 PM
By PunkPrincessPhd

For literary "G" names, let's not forget Gertrude - aka Hamlet's mother.

For a similar take on Gienna, what about Gioia?

238
June 29, 2009 5:16 PM
By zoerhenne

hyz-You are not slow. You restated the 2 questions exactly right and gave a wonderful synopsis of the correct answers. Florida does not have anything to do with the original question. However, I wonder if ElizabethT (correct me if I'm wrong) was not maybe going for the broader NE question? If we take it that the family has 2 children and ATLEAST 1 of them is a girl. What is the chance that the girl is named Florida? If we were talking about MY family it would be ZERO! Ha Ha! But is Florida more likely a girls name or a boys name is the broader question? I'm guessing the author thought girl, which is the way I'm leaning too.

239
June 29, 2009 5:24 PM
By Qwen

Gienna Joyce does flow together very well and the double 'g/j' noise fits nicely but Joyce itself is nms.

I think we're going to keep Gienna. I like that it's 'grown' on so many of you. :). Husband mentioned again just yesterday how much he likes it. I asked him about a middle name again and he's leaning away from the double 'g' so that frees us back up for a lot of literary references.

We're currently considering Charlotte, Scarlett, Lucy, Maude (well I'm considering that one, Husband hates it) and Emerson. We'd have to tread lightly/ask for permission for the use of Charlotte or Lucy as they've been used in the family already but I'm keeping them on the list for now.

240
June 29, 2009 5:27 PM
By Qwen

And I admit I still really like George. I'm keeping it on the list for now too, even though it harkens back to the double g.

241
June 29, 2009 5:32 PM
By Qwen

Oh! And I forgot to tell you guys I 'met' a woman (mid-30s maybe?) who's name was Gienna the other day. It turns out she pronounces it Gina.

My husband was excited because that was his mother's actual name so it strengthened the connection between the two names for him.

242
June 29, 2009 5:39 PM
By Anna

Hyz,

Your summary is absolutely right. The question with Florida is just trick question, and the girl's name is irrelevant. The point is to make the problem sound more complicated. It's one of those "educational" problems where you realise at the end you could have made it a whole lot easier for yourself, if you had analysed the problem properly instead of going full force ahead.

243
June 29, 2009 6:06 PM
By hyz

Thanks, zoerhenne and Anna--but then do you agree that the question is not asked just intentionally misleadingly, but incorrectly? Or am I still missing something? The full, exact text of each question is:

#2: You know that a certain family has two children, and that at least one is a girl. But you can’t recall whether both are girls. What is the probability that the family has two girls — to the nearest percentage point?

#3: You know that a certain family has two children, and you remember that at least one is a girl with a very unusual name (that, say, one in a million females share), but you can’t recall whether both children are girls. What is the probability that the family has two girls — to the nearest percentage point?

I would paraphrase this as:
"You know that a certain family has two children, and that at least one is a girl [with the 1/1m name of Florida]. But you can’t recall whether both are girls. What is the probability that the family has two girls — to the nearest percentage point?" (the language in brackets is the only effective difference I see between the 2 questions as stated)

To me, with or without the bracketed language, the answer to this question should be the same--33%. I'm totally down with trick questions, but I think this one is just wrong if they're going for an answer of 50%.

ETA: Ok, now that I wrote this out, and went back and looked at the given answer, I can follow his logic and how he gets to 50%, but it still doesn't seem right to me. Using his logic, it seems like you could make the solution to the first problem come out to 50% as well:
B,B
G(known), B
B, G(known)
G(known), G(unknown)
G(unknown), G(known)

Crossing out BB still gives you 4 choices, 2 of which are 2 girls --> 50%. Just giving one of the girls a name (Florida) doesn't make her any more unique than saying she's one girl in a set. If G(f),G(nf) and G(nf),G(f)are two separate possible occurrences, then G(known),G(unknown) and G(unknown),G(known) should be as well.

244
June 29, 2009 5:56 PM
By ba

My hypothetical 14 kids, considering the last name (starts with S, which eliminates many favorites) but not partner's input, and with a one-hour time limit:

Annora Kelly
Genevieve Mary
Helena Susanne
Louisa Naomi
Margaret Alma
Claire Patricia
Juliet Magdalene

Robert Griffiths
Luke Amedee
Paul Christopher
William Joshua
John Gregory
Theodore Frank
Henry Stephen

245
June 29, 2009 6:02 PM
By Leafy

Emilyrae, thanks for the link - it had a great explanation of the problem and the answer. I think the key point you left out Elizabeth T, is that part of the problem is that you remember that at least one of the children is a girl with a very unusual name. Now it makes sense to me!
Sheez though, that's enough thinking for a Monday morning! :)

246
June 29, 2009 6:04 PM
By knp

hyz: In the second case, because you know something specific about the the girl, you then have 4 options,
the girl (Florida) older or younger than her brother
or
the girl (Florida) older or younger than her sister

When you didn't know any specifics, there was just the possibility of
girl with older brother or
girl with younger brother or
girl with sister because you could remembering either sister (you have not added any info to differentiate the sisters)

I actually first thought they should both be 50%

?????

247
June 29, 2009 6:12 PM
By hyz

knp--thank you--I think your explanation is the best I've seen, and that must be how they are conceiving of it, but I still don't like their question. Just because you don't know anything particular about the girl in question two doesn't mean she couldn't be either the older or younger sister of a girl. I feel like this is some "if a tree falls in a forest..." question--just because I don't know anything particular about the girl doesn't mean she doesn't *have* individual characteristics, or that they're irrelevant.

So now I changed my mind, and I think your first answer was right (both being 50%).

248
June 29, 2009 6:35 PM
By Anna

Hyz, I agree it's confusing. The difference in #3 is that one, specific child has been picked (by assigning the name Florida) which leaves a 50/50 choice for the second. In #2 it is un-specifically one-or-the-other that is a girl. It's a tiny difference, but it makes a huge difference in statistics. Anyway, I'm in way over my head now, but the nice guys at Wikipedia explain it really well:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boy_or_Girl_paradox

249
June 29, 2009 7:49 PM
By Liz & Louka

I'm with hyz - I can't see why knowing a girl is named Florida eliminates the boy/boy possibility.

250
June 29, 2009 7:50 PM
By Qwen

Anna - I can't believe there's a Wikipedia entry for it. Well I can, but still... it makes me laugh. I'm still a little lost but I've decided to accept that as I was always bad at statistics anyway. :)

Ba - Nice list. I espeically like Juliet Magdalene.

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