The Baby Name Wizard

Oh bother, I just went back and read it more carefully. Just ignore me.

My husband thinks it is absolutely hilarious (and wonderful) that we are all discussing this problem. He has never had anything to contribute to the blog in the way of names, so is happy to make his mark now. :] We spent about 90 minutes talking about it on Saturday and it wasn't until Sunday that my husband actually came up with an answer that satisfied him. Hyz, your two statements (post 243) state exactly why this question is so confusing: the two problems seem like they should be the same, but in terms of probability, they're not. In the real world, what difference does it make whether her name is Florida, Violet, Vacuum Cleaner, or Katrina (in terms of having a sister, not in terms of her life experience!)? But in terms of probability, framing the question in such a way changes one's perception, and increases the possible permutations, thereby changing the probability. Fascinating! I don't know enough about statistics and probability to understand how this plays out in epidemiology, biostatistics, baby name wizardology, or other statistics-heavy fields, but it is really interesting.

And Zoerhenne, my point in raising it here was not, as you state, to get us all going about probability, but just to say that I thought the example of the name Florida was funny (and somewhat flawed). The author chose it because it's so uncommon (he notes that it left the SSA list before the 1930s), but it seems to me there are other names he could have chosen that are more ripe for revival! (I realize that wasn't his intention, but it is something NEs think about--and it's always good to stumble across an undiscovered gem, but somehow I don't see Florida making anyone's fantasy 14 list.)

I don't comment often but can't resist trying for 14 names. I couldn't get all the middles and couldn't help but repeat some first letters, but most go with our last name. DH likes only a few of these (but the man only likes about 5 names total so that's not saying much!)

Ellison Karlyn (nn Elle)
Cora
Juliet
Katharine
Carys
Harper
Anne/Annie

Edward Anderson (nn Teddy)
Barton West
Wesley
Sidney
Wyatt August
Patrick Konrad
Calvin

Ooh, Janet-

Wesley and Calvin are one of my all time favorite sibling pairs for personal reasons. I just get a big kick out of these together and my brother (who has three girls and no boys) always has loved the name Calvin. Before they knew that their twins were going to be girls, I did try to convince them to go for the pair, but I don't think I had them convinced. Anyway, I enjoyed seeing them together.

I just saw Alivia myself in an alumni newsletter for the private college I attended. Fortunately, for nosy ol' me, they have brag section listing all the "future students" recently born to those who share my alma mater. This last edition included:

Alivia
Annaliese
Audrey
Kevin
Emma
Jada
Spencer
Arden
Lydia
Ara
Brandon
Issac
Ethan
Elyssa
Elisabeth (3)
Jackson
Sean
Esther
Jillian
Emma
Gabriel
Anna
Andrew
Julianna
Aubrey
Matthew
Graydon
Meredith
Natalie
Elijah
Mary
Savannah
Phillip
Linnea
Corrine
Rebecca
Elias
Cathryn
Arah (f)
Seth

Whew! What a list!

Just shared my 14 names with dh, He disliked many of the boys names (only got 1 like and 2 oks) but all but one of the girls names were positive!! So, 8/14. Not so bad...

(boys names will be our downfall...)

ooooh, just talked him into Vaughn, (he though I said Ron) 9/14

Just came up with my family of fourteen. I managed (by astute use of middle names) not to double up any intials. No input from DH, and some of these actually wouldn't work too well with our last name, but I do like them all!

1. Anouk Alison
2. Beatrix May
3. Cassandra Mary
4. Dexter Simon
5. Franklin David
6. Gregory Matthew
7. Jett Anthony
8. Ginger Elise
9. Lotus Narelle
10. Michael Thelonius
11. Nicole Annette
12. Quon Darwin
13. Susan Theodosia
14. Westley James

Off topic - a friend at work (a Mrs Ross) is selling fundraising chocolates on behalf of the sports team her son Lachlan (nickname Lach - pronounced 'lock') is in. The sport? Lacrosse. So she's written on the box "For under 12s lacrosse team - Lach Ross". I was the only one that noticed how amusing it is that Lach Ross plays lacrosse! Had to point it out to my colleagues. I thought it was hilarious! (but I'm a dork...)

penny in australia:
hilarious!

qwen,
i understand what you mean about joyce. it actually isn't my taste either, but somehow when i think of it as a surname, it doesn't bother me. however, i do understand what you are saying. in general, it isn't particularly my style (at least as a given name).

penny in australia- Haha, I don't know how people *don't* notice these things sometimes, I make a pun of my last name occasionally and people often don't notice even though I think it's obvious (and at least worth a groan;).

Elizabeth T., totally agree with you about Florida being an odd choice for a name, but it does make it memorable! I'm still confused on this. I find it very interesting, but I still don't understand why a girl named Florida can't just be the same as a family having one girl. As others have stated I still see it as G(F) or G(NF) or B are the options for the Florida family and G(known), G(unknown) and B are the options for the other family. I have a sister and whether you knew that my parents had one daughter and another child or one daughter named Jenny and another child doesn't effect whether the other child is a girl or not, right?

I used to consider myself decent at math, but I guess we never did much stats...:)

Lach Ross / lacrosse ... that's funny!

Jenny L3igh,

The difference between the two cases is very subtle and lies in the interpretation of the starting point - are we considering the outcome of two events or just one? The wikipedia article acknowledges that the right answer to the Florida-question depends on interpretation. The confusing part is that the questions are phrased almost equally and therefore it is counterintuitive that the answers aren't the same.

Compare to this:

A) I'm going to flip a coin (H/T) twice - what is the possibility it'll be H both times? The answer is that out of 4 possible combinations (HH, HT, TH and TT) only one (HH) satisfies the condition.

B) I've flipped a coin once. The result was H. Now I'm going to flip it again - what is the possibility it'll be H? The straightforward answer is 50%. However, if you take a step back and consider the possibility of the first toss being H, and include that in your reasoning, you'll be looking at the 4 combinations (HH, HT, TH and TT) again.

The first child-question is a variation of A). The second question with the Florida-girl is analogous to B). By stating that one girl is named Florida you single out the result one event, and there is only event left to wonder about - at least that's how pure statistics work.

I think it makes it a little bit easier to appreciate why the questions can have different answers if you consider more events:

C) I'm going to flip a coin 5 times. What is the possibility it'll be H 5 times? The answer is 1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2 = 1/32 = 3.125%

D) I've flipped a coin 4 times. The results were H, H, H and H. Now I'll flip it again. What is the possibility of H? 1/2 = 50%. Obviously, the results of the previous 4 tosses are irrelevant, because you're being asked to consider one single independent event.

... I'm not sure how I'll react to meeting someone named Florida after this...

Jenny L3igh, I don't know if you're still reading this, but you're correct that having a daughter named Jenny doesn't affect whether or not a subsequent child would be a girl. At the time of each birth, the chance of having a girl is (roughly) 50%. But if you look at the problem from the outside, knowing that the family has two child and that one of the children is a girl named Florida, it does change the probability that the other child will be a girl, because knowing the child's name changes the possible permutations of the children (boy, girl named Florida; boy, girl not named Florida, etc.). It's counter intuitive. That's why it's an interesting problem.

Thanks, Anna! Your explanation was much clearer than mine.