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The entry deadline for 2008 has passed. Stop by in May to learn the results!
Just like hemlines and hairstyles, baby names follow fashion. Have a hunch that Britney is done as a baby name? Think that Ratatouille is going to spawn a swarm of young Remys? Guess America's fastest rising -- and fastest falling -- baby names of 2007.
Choose six names -- three you think rose sharply in the USA last year, three you think fell sharply . Submit your entry by April 1 2008. I'll tabulate the results once the official government figures arrive in May, and present the winners to international acclaim. (Which is to say no cash, just glory. But heck, it's free.)
Ready now? Fill out your ballot.
Need more background and details? Read on.
Why a pool?
Baby names rise and fall in popularity, and it's possible to make educated guesses about where they're headed. This scenario, and the graphs I use to illustrate name trends, have reminded a number of readers of the stock market. Why not set up a pseudo-market in names? Values would rise and fall with popularity; canny investors would try to predict fashion trends or ride a celebrity's rising visibility. In fact, similar markets have been set up based on sports stars' stats, movie stars' box office clout, etc. With baby names, though, the problem is liquidity. Results (popularity stats) are reported only once a year. And of the thousands and thousands of potential investments (names), only a handful experience dramatic change during the year. Hot, nonstop action this ain't.
The more natural format for predicting a once-a-year event is the classic office pool. As it happens, though, I'm a bit short on office. (You'll find me and my laptop at a corner table in your local cafe. Feel free to buy us a scone.) So I'm turning to you all as my virtual officemates to pick the baby name champions of the year. No entry fee is required, though recommending my book to pregnant strangers is always a lovely gesture.
Who are you, anyway?
I'm the Baby Name Wizard. My name is Laura Wattenberg, and my professional life is devoted to the study of baby names: how to choose them, how styles change, and what they say about all of us. I'm the author of the Baby Name Wizard name guide for expectant parents, and keeper of the popular NameVoyager that lets you explore the popularity of names over time. And be sure to drop in at my blog, where a wonderful community of name-loving people join in discussion of the ever-evolving state of names in our culture.
Down to brass tacks, I want to win. What exactly do you mean by "rose sharply"?
Identifying the hottest names of the year can by surprisingly dicey. In 2004 the number of Isabellas born in the U.S. rose by over 1000, for an 8% increase. The number of Sanaas rose by 89 for a 29% increase. So which was the hotter name? To even the playing field for popular and unpopular names, change will be calculated as a function of both absolute and percentage change. Scores for all 6 names will be summed together for a final score.
How am I supposed to know what's popular?
For raw data on U.S. name popularity, visit the Social Security Administration. To explore name trends in an interactive format, try my NameVoyager. For insights and enlightenment The Baby Name Wizard is a smashing little book, and modest too.
What about names that don't show up in the top 1000 lists?
To reward bold, visionary guesswork, bonus points will be awarded to picks of hot names that didn't appear in the 2006 top 1000 lists at all (assuming they do show up in '07.) In general, for calculation purposes a name that's off the charts will be counted at a usage frequency of 2/3 the number 1000 name.
How many times can I enter?
Once. Seriously. Remember how it's just me and my laptop here, sorting out the scoring is going to be hard enough as it is.
Can I go for broke and put the same name on every line?
Nah. Gotta work for your glory, kids.
On to the entry form!
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