Being in the name business, I have a lot of facts and figures rattling around in my brain. So when something doesn't fit, my name sensors go off. "This here name factoid smells fishy," I'll murmur, then I'll pull on my trenchcoat and start combing the dark alleys of data in search of the truth. Or at least I'll make a spreadsheet. Close enough.
This morning, the Factoid that Didn't Fit went by the name of Menachem. I encountered that name at #986 in the Social Security Administration's ranking of the top names of the decade, 2000-2008. The problem? I knew Menachem didn't appear in my NameVoyager.
The NameVoyager includes the top 1000 names for boys and girls from each decade, plus year-by-year figures starting with 2003 to get a close reading of current trends. If Menachem wasn't there, that means it could not have cracked the top 1000 for any individual year from 2003 on. Could it still rank among the top 1000 for the decade, as the SSA showed? It was possible, certainly, but unlikely. I double checked against my original data from those years; nope, no Menachem. Then I checked the SSA's full data on their website...and there it was. Menachem made the top 1000 for boys every year starting in 2003. The data had changed.
OK, to be honest, I know the data changes. The government releases each year's name popularity data in May of the following year, covering all SSN applications received through the end of February. Over the ensuing months more applications trickle in, and they eventually update their name rankings to reflect this. (I keep the original May data in the NameVoyager to assure comparable year-to-year samples.) By and large, name rankings change very little through this process. Menachem, though, seemed to be different. Late filings boost the name measurably year after year. Why?
My first thought was that it could be a seasonal name. Any name that's given most often in November & December would show up heavily in late filings. I checked birth records for Menachems, and no dice. The name is given pretty steadily across the course of the year.
What else, then? Well, Menachem is a name chosen overwhelmingly by Orthodox and other highly observant Jews. What about other names that fit that description? I dug out my original May data for the names Chaim, Chaya, Chana, Moshe and Yehuda from 2005-2007 and compared to the currently available data which includes late filings. In every single case, the name's rank rose with the late data.
The clues seem to point to this conclusion: on average, Orthodox Jews file SSA applications for newborns later than the rest of the population.
Weird, huh? I can dream up plenty of possible explanations, from the religious (e.g. the timing of naming ceremonies) to the bureaucratic (e.g. a slow processing center in Brooklyn). Perhaps one of you can up with a better answer? Regardless of the reason, though, the result is that Jewish baby names are being slightly but consistently undercounted every year.
By the way, the SSA currently says that Menachem didn't crack the top 1000 in 2008. Check back at those figures a year from now and see if they're singing a different tune.