You've read the blog, you've pored over the book, you have your finger on the pulse of baby name style -- and you could teach me a thing or two. Now's the time. Pick the names you think rose the fastest or fell the hardest this year, and submit them to the inaugural 2005 Baby Name Pool.
First, the ground rules. You choose six names: three you think have risen sharply in in popularity in the USA over the past year, three you think have fallen sharply . You submit your entry by February 1 2006, and await the results after the Social Security Administration releases the official figures on the top 1000 names for boys and girls. Now you're a winner, and receive a fawning tribute to your baby naming acumen in this very space. Huzzah!
If you're ready, head on over to fill out your ballot at babynamepool.com. Or, if you need a few more weeks to obsess over your selections, here's the background and details.
Why a pool? Baby names rise and fall in popularity, and it's possible to make educated guesses about where they're headed. This scenario, and the graphs I use to illustrate name trends, have reminded a number of readers of the stock market. Why not set up a pseudo-market in names? Values would rise and fall with popularity; canny investors would try to predict fashion trends or ride a celebrity's rising visibility. In fact, similar markets have been set up based on sports stars' stats, movie stars' box office clout, etc. With baby names, though, the problem is liquidity. Results (popularity stats) are reported only once a year. And of the thousands and thousands of potential investments (names), only a handful experience dramatic change during the year. Hot, nonstop action this ain't.
The more natural format for predicting a once-a-year event is the classic office pool. As it happens, though, I'm a bit short on office. (You'll find me and my laptop at a corner table in your local cafe. Feel free to buy us a scone.) So I'm turning to you all as my virtual officemates to pick the baby name champions of the year. No entry fee is required, though recommending my book to pregnant strangers is always a lovely gesture.
I'm honing my selections. What exactly do you mean by rose "sharply"? Identifying the hottest names of the year can by surprisingly dicey. Last year, the number of Isabellas born in the U.S. rose by over 1000, for an 8% increase. The number of Sanaas rose by 89 for a 29% increase. So which is the hotter name? To even the playing field for popular and unpopular names, change will be calculated as a function of of both absolute and percentage change. Scores for all 6 names will be summed together for a final score.
What about names that don't show up in the top 1000 list? To reward bold, visionary guesswork, bonus points will be awarded to picks of hot names that didn't appear in the 2004 top 1000 lists at all (assuming they do show up in '05.) In general, for calculation purposes a name that's off the charts will be counted at a usage frequency of 2/3 the number 1000 name.
How many times can I enter? Once, please! Be kind to your host. But if you absolutely must change your mind and enter again, I'll just use the latest dated entry.
Can I go for broke and put the same name on every line? Nah. Gotta work for your glory, kids.
Now, to the pool!
Baby naming is the kind of business where you write your "year in review" articles in May. It takes a while for national statistics bureaus to receive the full year's birth records, tabulate name frequencies, and put it all together for public consumption. By the time we really learn about 2005's top names the year will be far behind us.
In fact, it was just six months ago that I looked at at the people and events that sparked 2004's fast-rising names. But this year I'm going out on a limb. I've scanned the media horizon for fresh names that hit the sweet spot of style and celebrity. Here, for the first time anywhere, are advance predictions of the brand-new hot American names of 2005. Hold onto your seats, it's baby naming without a net!
Ciara (Current popularity rank: #330 among U.S. girls' names) - This name has been modestly common for 20 years now, but a breakthrough year for the R&B star Ciara should push it higher.
Danica (Unranked) - IndyCar racing's rookie of the year was *gasp* a woman and *double gasp* good looking and *triple gasp* had a catchy, gently unusual name.
Amerie (Unranked) - An upstart R&B name to give Ciara a run for its money.
Dane (#468) - This has been a big year for comedian Dane Cook, whose name currently trails Shane, Zane and Lane.
Evangeline (Unranked) - "Lost" tv star Evangeline Lilly makes this romantic leap beyond Madeline more accessible.
Lincoln (#549) - In my column on presidential names, I tapped Lincoln as my dark-horse candidate. A main character on tv's "Prison Break" could spark an overdue surge.
Meredith (#331) - Too familiar to be a hot naming sensation, but still fashionable...the high-profile Meredith on "Grey's Anatomy" should give it a boost.
Preston (#152) - Another Grey's Anatomist and the middle name of the most publicized baby of the year, Sean Preston Federline.
Rex (#947) - The "Desperate Housewives" husband Rex might not have been a great role model, and did meet an untimely end. But his demise has only made him a bigger topic of conversation.
Sania (Unranked) - Tennis player Sania Mirza is a hot topic in India, and Indian name fashions leap to the U.S. in a hurry.
Long shots--names that don't quite fit the style zeitgeist, but have cultural momentum:
Clive (Unranked) - Oscar-nominated actor Clive Owen
Carl (#369) - Back-flipping NASCAR driver Carl Edwards
Fantasia (Unranked) - American Idol singer Fantasia Barrino
Matilde (Unranked) - Heroine of the telenovela "Amor Real"
Obie (Unranked) - Crooner Obie Bermùdez (and rapper Obie Trice)
And, finally, the wild card:
Katrina (#281) - A month before that devastating storm hit, I wrote a piece on hurricanes' historical influence on baby names. Unlikely as it may seem, the name Katrina could very well rise in popularity in the wake of its namesake storm.
And come next May, you can call me on it.
Picture three American girls: Guadalupe, Imani and Bridget. The names are all quite close in popularity. But in your mind's eye, do the girls all look the same? Chances are not, because the popularity of those names depends hugely on race.
Just about every demographic slice--geographic, ethnic, religious--has its own naming patterns, and race is no exception. Researchers and baby name authors often try to track these differences, coming up with race-specific name lists. You'll even find tallies of the "whitest" and "blackest" names based on birth records. But what about the reverse? What names tell you the least about the person's race?
I started with data on baby name choices in two diverse U.S. metropolitan areas, sorted into racial groups. My targets were names parents of all colors agree on -- names used most evenly across races. As it turns out, the most popular names overall are not necessarily the most universal. Even the #1 baby name in America, Jacob, is favored primarily by one racial group (whites). Names with roughly equal appeal to White, Black, Latino and Asian families include:
These names could be attractive options for parents who are negotiating conflicting tastes in multicultural families. There's also an appeal to any name that can move smoothly through many different social settings...and one that is unlikely to trigger prejudices.
But there are other people besides expectant parents who have to choose names: business people. If your ad for birth announcements had room for just one example name, how would you choose? You could go with a timeless classic, a particularly eye-catching name, or to be current, the #1 most popular baby name. (Or perhaps the #2 -- Emma is the dominant choice in ads right now.) But you might also want to consider a name that everyone can relate to and nobody will feel put off by. For a name that's favored by all and favors none, try Jonathan and Victoria...or, for if you pay for ad space by the inch, Ian and Mia.