Just like hemlines and hairstyles, baby names follow fashion. Expecting a wave of bouncing baby Baracks? Have a hunch that Jennifer's days are over? Guess America's fastest rising -- and fastest falling -- baby names of 2008.
Choose six names -- three you think rose sharply in the USA last year, three you think fell sharply . Submit your entry by April 15 2009 (it's more fun than your tax forms!). I'll tabulate the results once the official government figures arrive in May, and present the winners to international acclaim. Which is to say no cash, just glory. But heck, it's free.
Ready now? Fill out your ballot.
Need more background and details? Read on.
Why a pool?
Baby names rise and fall in popularity, and it's possible to make educated guesses about where they're headed. This scenario, and the graphs I use to illustrate name trends, have reminded a number of readers of the stock market. Why not set up a pseudo-market in names? Values would rise and fall with popularity; canny investors would try to predict fashion trends or ride a celebrity's rising visibility. In fact, similar markets have been set up based on sports stars' stats, movie stars' box office clout, etc. With baby names, though, the problem is liquidity. Results (popularity stats) are reported only once a year. And of the thousands and thousands of potential investments (names), only a handful experience dramatic change during the year. Hot, nonstop action this ain't.
The more natural format for predicting a once-a-year event is the classic office pool. So I'm turning to you all as my virtual officemates to pick the baby name champions of the year. No entry fee is required, though recommending my book to pregnant strangers is always a lovely gesture.
Down to brass tacks, I want to win. What exactly do you mean by "rose sharply"? And how do I know what's popular now?
Use the NameVoyager popularity grapher to get a handle on current trends (you might be surprised!) To zoom in closer on who's using what name, try the NameMapper.
For scoring, pinpointing the hottest names of the year can be dicey. In 2004 the number of Isabellas born in the U.S. rose by over 1000, for an 8% increase. The number of Sanaas rose by 89 for a 29% increase. So which was the hotter name? To even the playing field for popular and unpopular names, change will be calculated as a function of both absolute and percentage change. To reward bold, visionary guesswork, bonus points will be awarded to picks of hot names that didn't appear in the 2007 top 1000 lists at all (assuming they do show up in '08.) Scores for all 6 names will be summed together for a final score.
How many times can I enter?
Once. Seriously. It's just me and my laptop here, sorting out the scoring is going to be hard enough as it is.
Can I go for broke and put the same name on every line?
Nah. Gotta work for your glory, kids.
